Baseball has evolved far beyond the traditional box score. While batting averages and home run totals still draw attention, modern coaches and analysts now rely on advanced metrics—known as sabermetrics—to measure a hitter’s true value. These data-driven insights reveal not just how often a player gets on base, but how effectively their performance contributes to scoring runs and winning games.
Below, we’ll explore three key analytics—Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA), Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA), and Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+)—that provide a clearer picture of what makes a hitter truly great.
1. Weighted On-Base Average (wOBA)
At first glance, wOBA might seem similar to the classic on-base percentage (OBP), but it’s far more precise. Instead of treating all hits equally, wOBA assigns a specific run value to each type of outcome—a double, for example, contributes more than a single, and a home run carries the most weight.
This formula captures the real impact of every at-bat. A player who consistently hits for extra bases will naturally have a higher wOBA than someone whose success relies on singles. The weights are adjusted each season based on league performance, ensuring that the statistic remains accurate and relevant.
To put this in perspective:
A wOBA above .400 is considered excellent.
Around .370 is great.
.340 is above average.
.320 is roughly league average.
When you look at the top hitters in the majors, they almost always dominate this category. wOBA reveals efficiency—how much a hitter actually contributes to their team’s run production rather than just how often they reach base.
2. Expected Weighted On-Base Average (xwOBA)
While wOBA measures outcomes, xwOBA focuses on quality of contact. Using advanced tracking tools like Statcast, it evaluates each batted ball based on exit velocity, launch angle, and other factors to estimate what should have happened, independent of defense or luck.
In other words, xwOBA strips away elements the hitter can’t control—like a great defensive play or an unlucky shift—and focuses purely on how well they hit the ball.
For instance, if a player consistently hits balls hard but right at defenders, their wOBA might look mediocre, but their xwOBA will reflect their strong underlying performance. Over time, players with a high xwOBA tend to see better results as those hard-hit balls start finding gaps.
Take the example of a hitter whose actual wOBA is .320 but whose xwOBA sits around .380. That gap suggests they’ve been producing quality contact but haven’t yet seen it translate into production—usually a sign of impending improvement.
In short, xwOBA provides a fairer, more predictive measure of offensive skill. It highlights hitters who may be outperforming their traditional stats or, conversely, those benefiting from unsustainable luck.
3. Weighted Runs Created Plus (wRC+)
If wOBA and xwOBA measure efficiency and quality, wRC+ adds context. It adjusts a player’s total offensive contribution to account for factors like ballpark dimensions and league scoring environment, then compares it to league average.
A wRC+ of 100 represents league average performance. Each point above or below that number reflects a one-percent difference. So, a player with a 150 wRC+ is producing 50% more runs than the average hitter.
This adjustment is crucial because not all ballparks are created equal. A home run in Denver’s hitter-friendly Coors Field isn’t the same as one in a pitcher’s park like San Francisco’s Oracle Park. wRC+ balances those differences, allowing fair comparisons across all environments.
For example, a player who hits 20 home runs in a spacious park might have a higher wRC+ than someone with similar stats playing in a smaller stadium, because their performance was achieved under tougher conditions.
wRC+ is often considered one of the best single metrics for judging offensive performance—it encapsulates how much a hitter contributes to their team’s scoring relative to the league, regardless of where they play.
The Big Picture: Why These Stats Matter
Advanced analytics like wOBA, xwOBA, and wRC+ go beyond the surface of traditional numbers. They identify the difference between a hitter who gets lucky and one who creates consistent, sustainable results.
Front offices and coaches use these tools to evaluate players objectively, spot under-the-radar talent, and develop training strategies that focus on measurable improvement—like optimizing launch angle or increasing hard contact percentage.
Ultimately, the great hitters of today aren’t just the ones with the most home runs or the highest averages—they’re the players whose metrics consistently prove they’re producing value every time they step to the plate.
As baseball continues to evolve, understanding these advanced analytics isn’t just for scouts and data analysts—it’s essential knowledge for anyone serious about mastering the modern game.
